MAT 540 MIDTERM EXAM LATEST
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MAT 540 Midterm Exam Latest
MAT 540 Midterm Exam Latest
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.
Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
A seed value is a(n)
Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period Demand Forecast
1 7 10
2 12 15
3 18 20
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?
A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value?
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Year Sales Forecast
2003 7 9
2004 12 10
2005 14 15
2006 20 22
2007 16 18
2008 25 21
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast
2001 16 18
2002 20 19
2003 18 24
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month Actual Demand
Use exponential smoothing with ? = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Calculate the correlation coefficient. Use four significant digits after the decimal.
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month Actual Demand
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.